Rising crude oil prices, traction in China equities and inflation concerns back home are casting a shadow on the Indian equity markets in the short term, believe analysts at Jefferies. They said this could see the markets remaining range-bound in the near term before the next leg up.
'Like all long-term bull markets, the Indian stock market will continue to climb the proverbial wall of worry.'
Such businesses outperform non-family firms by 3% in first six months of CY20, says Credit Suisse report.
While India won't be immune to global spillovers, we need to create the macro preconditions for sustained growth. Policy agility, prudence, and resilience will be key, suggests Sonal Varma.
However, in the last few sessions, the stock of Mukesh Ambani-controlled Reliance Industries Limited (RIL), hit its 52-week low level of Rs 2269.75, and has been one of the worst performers among the Sensex pack thus far in calendar year 2023 (CY23). Thus far in CY23, RIL has tanked nearly 11 per cent as compared to a fall of around 5 per cent in the S&P BSE Sensex. The fall in the stock, according to Gaurang Shah, senior vice-president at Geojit Financial Services is mostly due to the overall dip in the market sentiment, which in turn has impacted large-caps, including RIL.
FIIs pump in $1.4 billion in March, after pulling out $2.9 billion in Jan-Feb.
Asia's falling stocks have triggered an exodus of funds from the region.
US's terrible political and economic leadership will ultimately cost the dollar its value. India must act early to avoid being dragged down, suggests R Jagannathan.
Higher growth justifies current run-up, say experts.
The banks says that valuations are reasonable.
Nikkei 225 index hit the 40,000 mark for the first time ever on Monday, continuing its bull-run that saw the index reclaim its 1989 peak of 34,000 levels in February. as global investors latched on to Japan's biggest companies on improving shareholder returns, the weaker yen and booming corporate profits. Analysts remain bullish on Japan, mostly aided by gains in technology shares. Adoption of artificial intelligence (AI), according to a note by Morgan Stanley, is likely to benefit Japanese companies, which is almost at par with the US-based companies.
Corporate India lags the rest of its Western and Asian peers by a wide margin when it comes to the presence of women on their boards, with just 17.3 per cent of the large companies having them on their key decision making bodies, an international report said on Tuesday. However, this is a near 6 percentage points improvement between 2015 -- when it was only 11.4 per cent -- and 2021, Swiss brokerage Credit Suisse said in the report, which covered over 33,000 executives from more than 3,000 companies across 46 countries, including over 1,440 firms across 12 Asia-Pacific markets. Female representation on boards of large Indian companies has increased by 5.9 percentage points from 11.4 per cent in 2015 to 17.3 per cent in 2021.
Input shortages and low inventories, according to Nomura, will likely lead to production cuts and delayed shipments in the September 2021 quarter.
Very gradual fiscal consolidation glide path with looser-than-expected fiscal policy; good quality spending mix and reasonable assumption on fiscal math; and focus on privatisation, asset monetisation and long-term funding for infrastructure investments, according to Morgan Stanley, are the three key themes from the Budget 2021.
The primary market showed some signs of life in a busy day.
Citing the impact of the second wave of the pandemic over the economy and consumer sentiment, Swiss brokerage Credit Suisse has lowered its nominal GDP growth forecast by 150-300 bps to 13-14 per cent, but expects a stronger recovery in the second half as it sees the lockdowns having limited impact on tax collections. Last month, Neelkanth Mishra, the co-head of equity strategy for Credit Suisse Asia Pacific, and India equity strategist, had told PTI that he expected the real GDP to fall to 8.5-9 per cent in FY22 due to the more severe pandemic attack. The virus case load has crossed the 25-million mark, death toll from the same is nearing 2.9 lakh mark, which is one of the highest in the world as the test positivity rate has been around 15 per cent for long.
'The first half of 2019 could be volatile.' 'In the second half, volatility inducing events should be largely behind us.'
Gold, which was hovering around $1,321 an ounce in January 2019, has already breached $1,600 per ounce in the past few sessions to a seven-year high.
Morgan Stanley removed banking stocks from its model portfolio when it slashed its weighting on the sector by 500 basis points. Several foreign brokerages, such as UBS, JP Morgan, and Credit Suisse, of late, have also become less optimistic about banking stocks.
Chinese stock markets have slumped 30 per cent since mid-June.
Materials and utilities were the worst-performing sectors in March.
Since its peak, the S&P BSE Sensex has dropped nearly 3,000 points.
Morgan Stanley on Thursday became the latest brokerage to question the valuations of Indian equities and downgraded them from 'overweight' (OW) to 'equalweight' (EW) and recommended taking some money off the table. "We move tactically EW on India equities after strong relative gains - we expect a structural multi-year earnings recovery, but at 24 times forward price-to-earnings (P/E) we look for some consolidation ahead of US Fed tapering, an RBI hike in February and higher energy costs," Morgan Stanley equity strategists, led by Daniel Blake and Jonathan Garner, said in a note on Asia Pacific markets. The brokerage has upgraded Indonesia to OW, while maintaining an EW stance on China and UW on Taiwan.
With inflation down, the government's twin deficits are largely under control.
Major global indices like CAC 40, DAX Shanghai Composite, Hang Seng, Nikkei, Straits Times, Sensex, Nifty have lost 1% - 10% in a week
The trade-war between the US and China is prompting investors to flee from risky assets, such as equities, to safe-haven bets, such as gold and treasuries
Benchmark indices plunge 4.7% in the first full week of 2016.
'Experts are not ruling out further pain as global factors cannot insulate India from the aftermath.'
Markets and blue chip stocks may see a downward correction in short-to-medium term.
Any correction in Indian equities is an opportunity for investors to put in money for the long term
Foreign portfolio investors (FPIs) turned net buyers in October after being net sellers in the previous month. In October, FPIs bought shares worth nearly Rs 8,430 crore ($1 billion) against net selling of Rs 13,405 crore ($1.6 billion) in September. Positive flows during three of the previous four months have pushed the domestic markets towards fresh all-time highs. At present, the Sensex and Nifty are less than 2 per cent shy of breaching record highs logged in October 2021. A rally in equity markets in the US and Europe is in hopes that the Federal Reserve may go soft on rate hikes after its November meeting.
Index compiler FTSE said on Wednesday it planned to raise the weighting of India to 2.9 per cent from 2.3 per cent in its All-World Asia-Pacific ex-Japan Index as well as making a number of other changes.
72 per cent of the revenue of Indian firms (India Inc) is derived from the domestic / home market - the sixth highest in percentage terms in the emerging market (EM) and the Asian region, said a recent report by Morgan Stanley. The balance, according to the report titled 'Global Exposure Guide 2021' co-authored by analysts led by Jonathan F Garner, their chief Asia and emerging market strategist, is split between the developed markets (DMs) and other EMs. The report is based on an analysis of 3,300 companies globally that have revenue exposure in 17 different regions.
With the US housing and labour markets on the mend, the healing looks more durable, say RBS's Sanjay Mathur and Louis Kuijs.
'India is likely to do better than other emerging markets.'
2019 appears a story of two halves for Indian equities - a more difficult first half might precede a stronger second half, said Abhiram Eleswarapu, bottom, left, Head of India Equity Research, BNP Paribas in an interview with Ashley Coutinho.
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According to global deal tracking firm Dealogic, the deal value in the January to June period this year was the lowest first six months deal value recorded since 2009, when $1.09 trillion worth of transactions were announced.
However, despite Covid, Indian markets registered their best financial year performance in a decade, with the Sensex and Nifty50 rallying 68 per cent and 71 per cent, respectively, in FY21.
Foreign investors highlight growing risk to the India story.
In 2004, India's IT spending is expected to grow 19.5 per cent, while that of China is forecast to expand 16.9 per cent, IDC said.\n\n\n\n
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